"crazy" weather

A disruption of the jet stream due to global warming occasionally sends bursts of cold weather south. Where will they play this coming winter?

The summer that reaches the Northern Hemisphere affects the Arctic Circle, what will happen in the summer in the Northern Ocean and the ice plains around the Pole will dramatically affect the winter.

Last winter, a relatively high temperature was recorded in Northwest America, while in Eastern Europe there were waves of frost that piled the snow up to the height of the roofs of the houses. Last winter, North America was "struck" by cold waves... what is happening here? And what will happen next winter?

It is possible that Publication in: Oceanography By Charles Green and Bruce Munger, two climatologists from the University of Cornwall, explains the events. The researchers link the melting of the ice to extreme weather in winters. The melting of ice causes fundamental changes in the jet stream. Since the jet stream is the most influential factor on winter weather in temperate regions And the "cool" ones in the Northern Hemisphere, the researchers claim that the "strange" winters will multiply and become the norm.

Ice reflects the sun's radiation. When the ice in the northern circle melts, the ocean water is exposed. The dark water absorbs more solar radiation and heats up. The warming contributes to the melting of more ice, and thus a positive feedback is created - that is, a self-reinforcing loop.
In autumn, the ocean releases the excess heat into the atmosphere, which reduces the temperature differences between the arctic circle and the intermediate regions (between the northern circle and the temperate zone). Low temperature differences reduce the air pressure differences (barometric pressure) between the different areas.

The air pressure zones are divided between the 70th latitude and the pole to the area called the "Arctic Oscillation" and the 70th latitude to the sub-equatorial area called the "North Atlantic Oscillation". The fluctuations are caused by differences in barometric pressures between the different areas. Differences caused by differences in temperatures, as the temperature differences are small, the pressures equalize which affects the movement of the jet stream.

The jet stream moves from west to east in a curved line or slight waves around the North Pole. In the summer the temperature differences are high and therefore the pressure differences between the north and the south are high. These differences create a "boundary" where the jet stream blows in a fixed path. In the fall, when the temperatures equalize, the air pressure equalizes, meaning the "border" becomes blurred and less clear what causes deep meanders, meaning parts of the current are "pulled" south while other parts are "pushed" north. Sharp meanders that descend southward bring cold polar air and cause extreme cold.

Meanders that rise to the north merge the winter in the north. Thus a twist that rises to the north will moderate the winter and cause a warm winter in western America, at the same time a twist of the jet stream "descends" south to the east of North America and causes stagnation. Another rising torsion will cause a warm winter in Western Europe and again a descending torsion will cause cold in Eastern Europe, as it was last winter.

Two years ago, an El Nino effect was added to the fluctuation of the jet stream, which pushed the twists of the jet stream to the north and caused a sharp diversity between western and eastern regions. A year later, the twists and turns of the jet stream will be amplified by La Nina, which prevailed in the Pacific Ocean last year and added to cold and dry periods. That is, the changes in the twists and turns of the jet stream are amplified by cyclical phenomena.

The conclusion is that as the melting of the Arctic ice expands, the twists in the jet stream will be deeper and will stay longer in their position, making the winters colder or warmer than usual. The researchers say that: "The climate cycles in the Arctic Circle change drastically and change the rules of the game." "This is not the familiar Arctic Ocean", "the changes going through the Arctic Circle and the Arctic Oscillation are taking place at extremes and speed beyond the possibilities of prediction".

As a result of the changes, there will be fewer "average winters" and more extreme weather phenomena, although climate scientists cannot predict in detail the fluctuations for more than two weeks, and if the melting of the polar ice caps continues, it can be assumed that the extreme winters will increase.

At the end of the last winter (2012), thinner ice surfaces than usual were detected on the coasts of northern Russia. In photographs from a helicopter that flew later (in mid-June) over the Arctic Ocean close to the northern coast of Russia, it was possible to see how the ice surfaces are cracking, that is, melting. According to the Alfred Wegener Institute for Ocean and Polar Research, the images "promise" that by mid-summer the northern passage will already be open.

In other words, the ice will disappear and the ocean water will accumulate heat that will be released in the fall. According to the warming summer, the researchers predict that since there are signs that El Nino is returning again, the chances are increasing that the next winter will be colder and windier than usual in other areas as well.