An international scientific update states that the Earth's energy imbalance is at its peak. Most of the heat is absorbed by the oceans, but the consequences are felt in heat waves, rising sea levels and changes in precipitation.
The Earth is currently absorbing more energy from the sun than it is returning to space. This gap, known as the “Earth’s energy imbalance,” is one of the key indicators of the rate of warming. According to a new international scientific update, this gap has more than doubled since the period 1976–1995 and is now at record levels.
The update was published in the journal Earth System Science Data as part of the Indicators of Global Climate Change project, in which more than 70 researchers from 56 institutions in 17 countries participate. The researchers are monitoring a series of indicators designed to update, between IPCC reports, the state of the climate system and human influence on it.
According to the study, human-induced warming reached about 1.37 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in 2025. In the decade 2016–2025, average human warming was about 1.24 degrees. If the current rate of warming continues, the world could reach 1.5 degrees of human warming around 2030. It is important to emphasize: the 1.5 degree threshold of the Paris Agreement is not measured by a single abnormal year, but by sustained warming over time.
Most of the heat goes to the oceans.
The energy imbalance is not an abstract concept. It describes a real excess of heat stored in the climate system. About 90% of the excess heat is absorbed by the oceans, so they act as a kind of climate “shock absorber.” But this absorber does not prevent the effects, but rather transfers them to other places.
Ocean warming causes thermal expansion of seawater, contributing to the melting of glaciers and accelerating sea level rise. According to the new update, global sea levels have risen by about 23 centimeters since 1901. The rate itself is increasing: while in the twentieth century the rise was measured at an average rate of less than two millimeters per year, in recent decades it has been much faster.
Marine heatwaves are also becoming more frequent. In 2025, the average ocean area experienced about 65 days of marine heatwave. In the past decade, there were an average of 58 such days per year, compared to just 37 days in the decade 2007–2016. Marine heatwaves harm ecosystems, coral reefs, fisheries, and coastal communities that depend on the sea for their livelihoods and natural protection from storms.
Less of an unusual event, more of a warm background
The study shows that global warming is not just about the average air temperature. The entire climate system is gaining energy: the oceans are warming, ice is melting, the land is warming, and the atmosphere is becoming more humid. Warm air can hold more water vapor, so it increases the risk of extreme rainfall events. In other areas, the same warm system can exacerbate droughts and heat waves.
Against this backdrop, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. According to the update, global greenhouse gas emissions peaked at 56.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2024, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise.
Another factor that concerns researchers is the decline in some aerosol emissions, especially air pollutants containing sulfur. Such aerosols reflect some of the sun’s radiation back into space and therefore provide partial and temporary cooling. Reducing air pollution is essential for public health, but it also “uncovers” some of the warming that was previously masked by polluting particles. Therefore, researchers are now examining the extent to which the decline in aerosols, changes in clouds and climate sensitivity affect the acceleration in the energy balance.
El Niño on a world that has already warmed
In addition to the long-term warming trend, natural fluctuations such as El Niño can also affect global weather. El Niño is a cyclical warming of tropical Pacific waters that alters rainfall, heat, and storm patterns around the world. An El Niño event is developing in 2026, and forecasters predict it could strengthen later this year.
But the big difference is the starting point. El Niño is not happening today in a “normal” climate, but in a world that has already warmed considerably. So that natural oscillation is operating on a warmer and wetter basis, and can increase the risk of heat waves, droughts, floods and marine heat waves. The World Meteorological Organization emphasizes that every El Niño event is different from its predecessors, and that not every region will be affected in the same way. The bottom line of the study is clear: as long as more energy enters the climate system than leaves it, the Earth will continue to warm. Stopping this build-up requires a sharp and sustained reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, until it reaches net zero. Without such a change, the excess heat will continue to accumulate — and events that were previously considered exceptional will become more frequent, stronger and harder to manage.
Scientific article: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence. Journal: Earth System Science Data, 18, 3889–3933, 2026.
DOI: 10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026
Short FAQ:
What is the Earth's energy balance?
This is the difference between the amount of energy the Earth absorbs from the Sun and the amount of energy it radiates back into space. When the difference is positive, the climate system is gaining heat.
Where does most of the excess heat go?
Most of it is absorbed by the oceans. Therefore, they heat up, expand, and contribute to sea level rise and marine heat waves.
Has the world already crossed the 1.5 degree mark?
A few years could pass the threshold, but the Paris threshold refers to prolonged warming. According to the study, if the pace continues, human-induced warming of 1.5 degrees could occur around 2030.
How does El Niño relate to this?
El Niño is a natural oscillation in the Pacific Ocean, but it is now operating against the backdrop of an already warming world. Therefore, it can increase the risk of extreme events in some regions.
More of the topic in Hayadan:
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Our real problem is not the rapidly approaching ecological crisis, but human stupidity, which prevents the necessary confrontation.
I have news for you, nature is not interested in either capitalism or communism. The Earth is seeing an increase in =-CO2, which is a greenhouse gas that does not allow excess solar heat to escape, so it is warming up. It's that simple. By the way, this is also an opportunity to talk about the capitalist ideology that, by denying the most basic science, is destroying the entire Earth, the main thing is that 99% of the people will enter absolute poverty. You will probably be one of them too, because the energy tycoons have no sentiment even for those who protect them from the truth.
I have yet to see any real graphs in the article with real facts of real, proven changes. It seems that in the name of a progressive neo-communist ideology, people are being scared.