The development of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean is expected to increase extreme events in the coming months. But researchers emphasize that the climate crisis is the main factor that is intensifying the danger to health, forests, and ecosystems.
Climate scientists are warning that a renewed El Niño in the Pacific could intensify heat waves, droughts, fires and floods in many parts of the world in the coming months. However, their main message is clear: El Niño is not the main cause of extreme weather. It is currently operating against the backdrop of a world that has already warmed significantly due to greenhouse gas emissions, and its effects could therefore be more severe than similar El Niño events that have occurred in the past. This is according to an investigation published by the website Inside Climate News
El Niño is the warm phase of a semi-natural cycle of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. During such an event, large amounts of heat stored in the ocean are released into the atmosphere. The result is a temporary increase in the average global temperature, sometimes on the order of 0.17 degrees Celsius. On the surface, this is a small number. In fact, when combined with long-term warming caused by human activity, even such an addition can increase the risk of extreme events.
The same El Niño, another world
Professor Freddie Otto of Imperial College London, a lead researcher in the World Weather Attribution group, told an online briefing that a moderate or strong El Niño in today’s world is not like the El Niño of a few decades ago. She said the entire climate system is warmer, so a natural event that adds more heat could lead to weather extremes that would not have occurred with the same intensity in the past.
The researchers note that the El Niño events of 2015–2016 and 2023–2024 contributed to breaking global heat records. But even without El Niño, temperatures continue to climb due to the Climate Crisis. Otto emphasized that many studies conducted since 2014 have found that the impact of human-made warming on the likelihood and intensity of extreme events is generally greater than the impact of El Niño itself. For example, an analysis of extreme rainfall in the Horn of Africa in late 2023 found that global warming was a more dominant factor than El Niño.
This means that El Niño is not the only “culprit” when a drought, flood or heat wave occurs. It can tilt the system and exacerbate certain phenomena, but it does so on the basis of a climate that has already changed. So even when El Niño weakens, the underlying risk of extreme events will not disappear.
Heat as a silent health crisis
One of the most worrying aspects is extreme heat. Dr. Jamila Mahmud, director of Sunway Planetary Health Centre, said heat is a crisis that many systems tend to ignore until it is too late. Unlike a hurricane or a flood, a heat wave is not always visible. It affects people in homes, fields, work sites and crowded cities, especially populations who have no way to escape it.
According to data presented at the briefing, extreme heat causes about 546 deaths a year worldwide. The harm is not evenly distributed. Outdoor workers, the elderly, the sick, residents of poor neighborhoods, and people in countries that have contributed relatively little to the climate crisis often bear the heaviest health burden.
The researchers also describe this as an issue of climate justice. Those who have generated the bulk of historical emissions are not necessarily those who are hit first or hardest. When El Niño heats up, this gap becomes more pronounced.
A severe fire season could develop
Another area where a significant impact is expected is forest and bush fires. Particularly sensitive areas include the Amazon, Canada, the western United States and Australia. Dr. Theodore Kipping of the University of Reading in the UK said fire crews in these areas were bracing for a particularly difficult year.
He said the combination of unusual precipitation followed by dryness and heat creates a dangerous “seesaw”: grass and shrubs grow rapidly during wet periods, then dry out and become flammable. When winds, heat and drought arrive, the area becomes especially flammable.
More than 1.3 million square kilometers of land has burned globally since the beginning of the year, about 50 percent more than the average for the past 25 years. Many countries in West Africa and the Sahel region have experienced unusual fires, and fires have been recorded in areas of Southeast Asia that are usually wetter, including in Myanmar, Thailand, and Laos. Researchers attribute some of these conditions to droughts that have been exacerbated by climate change.
The researchers' message is not that El Niño should be seen as an inevitable disaster, but that the world is entering it from a more dangerous position. El Niño comes and goes. The climate crisis, on the other hand, will continue to worsen as long as fossil fuel burning continues. Therefore, they say, the key response is not just preparing for the upcoming season, but rapidly reducing emissions, strengthening health systems, preparing in advance for heat waves, and improving fire and water management in vulnerable areas.
Suggested image caption:
People cross a road that collapsed during flash floods near Garissa, Kenya, in November 2023, during a period associated with El Niño conditions. Credit: Luis Tato/AFP via Getty Images.
Quick FAQ
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a warm phase in a semi-natural cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It releases heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, temporarily raising global temperatures.
Why is El Niño more dangerous today?
Because it is taking place in a world that is already warming due to greenhouse gas emissions, the temporary increase in temperature could exacerbate heat waves, droughts, fires and floods.
Is El Niño the main cause of extreme weather?
No. Researchers emphasize that El Niño can exacerbate certain events, but the climate crisis is the main factor that increases the likelihood and intensity of extreme events.
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