Analysis by World Weather Attribution found the current heatwave is the worst on record for the region studied. A similar airflow pattern would have produced daytime temperatures as low as 3.5 degrees Celsius in 1976, but as Europe warms rapidly, it is now breaking records and straining cities, hospitals and infrastructure.
EUROPE In June 2026, the United States experienced an unusually intense heat wave, but the question of whether this was a “new climate” requires a precise answer. The weather pattern itself is not unprecedented: a high-pressure system and a southerly flow brought warm air from North Africa to Western Europe, along with clear skies and strong sunlight. What has changed is the background against which this system operates.
Quick analysis of World Weather Attribution, based on observations and climate data, found that the heatwave was the most severe recorded in the region studied. In France, Germany, Italy, Spain and southern England, temperatures were measured 5 to 12 degrees above the seasonal average. The researchers emphasize that the airflow pattern is similar to patterns seen in the past, but in an already warming climate it produces extreme heat Much.
What would have happened to that heat wave in 1976?
The researchers compared the current event to previous periods when Europe experienced Heat waves Especially memorable. According to the analysis, if the same event had occurred in June 1976, daytime temperatures would have been about 3.5 degrees lower, and nighttime temperatures would have been about 2.4 degrees lower.
Even compared to 2003, the year of the first deadly heat wave of this century in Europe, the difference is striking. A similar event then was about 2 degrees cooler during the day and about 1.3 degrees at night. Daytime heat at current levels was about ten times rarer, while such warm nights were more than a hundred times rarer.
This means that the event is not just the result of an unusual combination of meteorological circumstances. Those circumstances are now operating on a higher climatic basis. Every high-pressure system, every southerly flow, and every dry spell starts from a warmer starting point than it was a few decades ago.
Europe is warming up extremely quickly.
European Climate Service State of the Climate Report Copernicus And the World Meteorological Organization found that Europe is the fastest-warming continent. Since the mid-1990s, the continent's temperature has risen at a rate of about 0.56 degrees Celsius per decade, more than twice the global rate.
Compared to the pre-industrial period, Europe has already warmed by about 2.5 degrees. The warming is not uniform: regions in eastern and central Europe, the Alps, and the European Arctic are warming particularly rapidly, while the rate of change also varies between seasons.
In Western Europe, summer is the season that has warmed the fastest. According to World Weather Attribution analysis, June is warming faster than any other month in large parts of the region. Maximum temperatures on the hottest days are rising at about three times the rate of global warming, and extreme nighttime temperatures are rising at about twice the rate.
Why is Europe warming more than average?
The main cause of long-term warming is the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations from the burning of fossil fuels. However, several regional characteristics are accelerating the rate of change in Europe.
Land warms faster than ocean because water is able to absorb more heat and cool through evaporation. Europe also includes northern regions affected by the rapid warming of the Arctic.
Changes in atmospheric circulation patterns are increasing the frequency and intensity of summer heat waves. In addition, the decline in air pollution since the 1980s has reduced the concentration of aerosols, some of which reflect sunlight back into space and help form clouds. Cleaner air is an important health benefit, but it has also removed some of the temporary cooling that previously masked some of the warming caused by greenhouse gases.
A decrease in snow cover also changes the energy balance. When white snow disappears earlier, the dark surface beneath it absorbs more radiation and warms up.
Almost half of cities have exceeded heat stress thresholds
Temperature alone does not reflect the full health risk. The combination of heat and humidity makes it difficult for the human body to dissipate heat through sweating. The researchers examined an index heat load which combines temperature, humidity, and radiation, and found that during the heat wave, between June 18 and 29, 45% of the European cities examined crossed abnormal heat load thresholds inside buildings.
The analysis included 854 cities, home to about 30% of Europe's population. The risk is particularly high in cities due to the urban heat island effect, older buildings that are not adapted to prolonged cooling, lack of shade, and economic disparities in access to air conditioning and heat-resistant housing.
Hot nights are especially dangerous because they do not allow the body to recover from the heat of the day. When the heat lasts for several days and nights in a row, the risk of illness and death increases, especially among the elderly, people with chronic diseases, workers outdoors, the homeless, and those living in uncooled apartments.
Is this the "new normal"?
The term “new normal” may give the impression that the climate has stabilized in a new state. In reality, as long as greenhouse gas emissions continue, the base point will continue to rise. A heat wave that is considered extreme today may become more common in the future, and even more severe events remain possible.
It is therefore more accurate to say that Europe is in the midst of a rapid climate transition. Summers that were typical of the second half of the 20th century no longer represent current conditions, but the climate of 2026 is not a final destination either.
According to World Weather Attribution, heat waves cause more deaths in Europe than all other natural disasters combined. Coping requires two simultaneous actions: rapidly reducing fossil fuel use to halt further warming, and adapting cities, healthcare systems, transport, schools and homes to the heat that has become inevitable.
How can cities adapt to rising heat?
Adaptation solutions include planting trees and expanding shaded areas, light walls and roofs, shading of transportation stations, natural ventilation, renovation of old buildings, accessible cooling centers, and targeted warning programs for vulnerable populations.
However, adaptation is not a substitute for reducing emissions. As temperatures continue to rise, the costs of protection increase and some measures become less effective. Air conditioning can save lives, but it increases electricity consumption and can strain the grid, especially if electricity is still generated from fossil fuels.
The June 2026 heatwave demonstrates that the question is not whether climate change will affect Europe in the future. The impact is already being measured within the lifetimes of people living today: the same weather pattern produces a much hotter and more dangerous outcome than it would have produced in 1976 or even 2003.
Questions and Answers
Is the heat wave caused solely by climate change?
No. The event was created by a high-pressure system and a flow of warm air from North Africa. Climate change did not create the weather pattern, but it greatly increased the temperatures that resulted from it.
How much has climate change increased the heat?
According to historical comparison, a similar event would have been about 3.5 degrees cooler on the day if it had occurred in June 1976, and about 2 degrees cooler if it had occurred in 2003.
Why is Europe warming faster than the global average?
Reasons include faster warming of land compared to sea, proximity to the Arctic region, changes in air flow patterns, decreased snow cover, and reduced aerosols due to improved air quality.
Why are warm nights dangerous?
At night, the body is supposed to cool down and recover from the heat of the day. When the temperature remains high, the physiological load continues and increases the risk of morbidity and mortality.
Will such heat waves become routine?
As warming continues, such events are becoming more common. But this is not a stable routine: without rapid emissions reductions, future heat waves are also expected to be more severe.
Research and reports
For the World Weather Attribution study:
Fossil fuel emissions have rapidly worsened European heatwaves in just a few decades
For the full scientific report:
For the European Climate Status Report 2025 by Copernicus and the World Meteorological Organization:
European State of the Climate 2025
More on the subject on the science website
- Europe in 2025: Heat waves from the Mediterranean to the Arctic Circle, peak fires and retreat of snow and glaciers
- Same weather, a warmer world – and Europe could pay in human lives
- The extreme heat is already limiting the very ability to live, work, and move safely.
- The impact of the climate crisis on extreme weather events
- The reason for the heat wave in Europe: the stuck jet stream
