July 2019 was the hottest month on record

This is according to a report published by the American National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA), which also mentions Israel among the places where heat records were broken * The rate of sea ice melting at both poles broke records. * Prof. Danny Rosenfeld from the Hebrew University and Israel's representative to the IPCC: The scientists are waking up, but the ones who can change are the elected officials

A thermometer in the Netherlands shows a temperature of 40 degrees Celsius, July 2019. Photo: shutterstock
A thermometer in the Netherlands shows a temperature of 40 degrees Celsius, July 2019. Photo: shutterstock

Wide areas all over the world suffered from heat waves last month, now it turns out that the average temperature has also jumped to new heights. July 2019 is the hottest month in history since measurements began. The heat caused sea ice cover in both the Arctic and Antarctic to shrink to historically low levels.

NOAA's latest global climate report published at the end of the week indicates that the average temperature across the globe was 0.95 degrees Celsius higher than the 15.8th century average (which is 2016 degrees Celsius on average across the globe). This value is higher than the previous record set in 0.03 by 2005 degrees Celsius. Nine of the ten warmest months have occurred since 2015, while in each of the last five years (2019–XNUMX) recorded one of the record months of this type.
July 2019 marked the 43rd consecutive July and the 415th consecutive month with temperatures, at least nominally, above the twentieth century average. July 2016, 2017 and 2019 were the only ones to have a below average temperature drop of an additional 0.9 degrees above the 20th century average. With July 2019 the hottest July on this list, at least nominally. This figure brought it to the hottest month ever in the world.

An infographic describing records broken in July 2019 in different parts of the world. From the NOAA report.
An infographic describing records broken in July 2019 in different parts of the world. From the NOAA report.

It was the warmest year on record for parts of North and South America, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, the southern half of Africa, parts of the western Pacific, the western Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean.
Sea ice at lows - Average Arctic sea ice cover hit a negative record in July, 19.8% below average - surpassing the previous historic low in July 2012. Average Antarctic sea ice cover was 4.3% below the 2010-1981 average, making it the smallest July For 41 years.
However, parts of Scandinavia and western and eastern Russia had temperatures at least a degree below average. In Siberia, in the central part of Russia, forest fires occurred that are still raging, while other parts of Siberia experienced floods.

The report also notes that some of the stations in Israel recorded record temperatures last month.

Prof. Daniel Rosenfeld from the Institute of Earth Sciences at the Hebrew University and Israel's representative in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) explains in a conversation with the Hidaan site, the convergence of cyclical warming with the rising global warming graph.

"When we are in a warming trend, the reason that each month is not hotter than the previous one or is slightly warmer is because there are natural fluctuations, and in the past we would see cooling and warming. As soon as these data are put together on an upward trend, we receive it in waves. Each new wave sets new records, and lo and behold Now we are in the natural cycle of warming on top of a trend of man-made warming, so we have reached a new peak these days."

Prof. Rosenfeld emphasizes that these data only increase confidence, and can help convince the doubters of warming.

The role of scientists is to search for the truth and reveal it

"My role as a scientist is to reveal the truth in the clearest way possible and bring it to the knowledge of as many people as possible among you to leverage these facts into practice. I am much better at the first and second thing." There is a debate, which unfortunately is not my business, that tries to minimize or cast doubt on the conclusions regarding human responsibility for global warming and its meaning, and this thing is fed by interests, some of which are understandable - that we tend to accept any evidence that removes the blame from us and it is more convenient to believe that it is not our fault and that we do not have to do anything. "

"As soon as it is completely clear what the undisputed facts are, and it will be the property of the public, the public will choose the political representatives who will do what the public thinks is right. This is the basis on which the green parties in Europe were founded, in Israel there are much bigger problems that mask the environmental problems. This still does not solve us From the duty to educate the public to know how to choose their representatives. I operate in the global environment in terms of the scientific facts and their basis.

Q: An article Q was recently published on the Seventh Eye websiteCriticizes the lack of involvement of politicians, scientists and journalists In regards to explaining the severity of the collapse that is already happening. What do you think of these claims?

Prof. Rosenfeld: "Journalists have an important role in taking the information and translating it from our dry scientific language into clear language for the general public. I am trying to do this through you. I have a limited amount of time and the thing I do best is to invest my energy in establishing the facts in the clearest way, so that you can To say what will happen if we do this or don't do this."

Despite everything, Prof. Rosenfeld believes that market forces can solve the crisis, at least when it comes to energy "Currently, electricity produced in solar power plants is cheaper, at least at the entrance to the stations, than electricity from medium-sized power plants. The main problem is the ability to supply electricity only during the day and not necessarily when the electricity is needed With the development of batteries that run electric cars and even batteries that store electricity in power plants, the world is going for it from an economic point of view, so what is missing here is government regulation or Intergovernmental to solve the failure of the global market and make what is not worthwhile for each one individually very worthwhile for all of us together."

"From this point of view, in my opinion, the market forces are the ones that will ultimately determine, and in this direction there is room for a little optimism because we are going in a direction where clean energy from the sun and the wind, in particular solar becomes cheaper, at least at the entrance of solar power plants than energy from coal-fired power plants. The main problem becomes Not the energy itself but its storage from the time it is available to the time we need it with the development of the electric batteries of electric cars and batteries that store electricity In terms of power plants, the world is going for it from an economic point of view. Today, it is relatively expensive, so what is ultimately missing here is governmental or intergovernmental regulation to solve the global market failure and make what is not worthwhile for each one individually very worthwhile for all of us."

The variation of the average temperature in the months of July compared to the twentieth century average. Figure: From the NOAA report.
The variation of the average temperature in the months of July since the beginning of measurements in 1880 compared to the average of the twentieth century. Figure: From the NOAA report.

For the full NOAA climate report

More of the topic in Hayadan:

6 תגובות

  1. What is the argument about? It's enough to see the graph above showing the average temperatures in the world since 1880. Is there something unclear here?

  2. We were not talking about percentages - if we were talking about an increase of 0.95 percent, it would have been significant whether it was Kelvin or Celsius. The increase is absolute by 0.95 degrees, so it is meaningless.
    Note that there is also warming in the southern hemisphere, where it should be winter.

  3. Avi,

    Regarding the subject of Celsius/Kelvin: Celsius created an arbitrary scale between 0 and 100, without any physical and thermodynamic consideration; On the other hand, Calvin's scale starts at absolute zero - and therefore it - and only it - really has scientific meaning. When making calculations in exact sciences (especially if performing operations such as multiplication and division, as is done in this publication), degrees Kelvin and degrees Celsius are absolutely not the same; So, for example, the ratio between the boiling temperature of water and its freezing temperature - using degrees Celsius will give an infinite value, while using Kelvin will give a value around 1.5 (373.15 divided by 273.15). So it is clear that Celsius and Calvin are not the same.
    Another example: the ratio between 300 degrees Celsius and 150 degrees Celsius is 2; Using the correct units (i.e. Kelvin) will result in a ratio between the number 573.15 (= 300 degrees Celsius) and 423.15 (= 150 degrees Celsius) which will give a result whose value is 1.35!!!

    Regarding your comment for calculating the error in measurements: as soon as you write any result plus or minus 0.95 (and it doesn't matter what you measure: volume, weight, temperature, pure number, etc.) - the concept of "significant digits" requires that the accuracy of the measurement be according to the position of the last digit, i.e. an error of 0.95 requires accuracy - after weighing the systematic errors and the errors of the measuring devices you used - of up to the second digit after the decimal point – that is, an accuracy of 0.01.

    There is no "creative accounting" here, as you say - but a description of the only correct way to perform calculations and present scientific results.
    It must be noted that this form of calculation is taught at every university and college at the very beginning of the first year of a bachelor's degree in every science department: chemistry, physics, biology, etc. There is no "creativity" here, but an understanding of the meaning of the measurement that the student performs in the laboratory and how reliable the results obtained in the experiments can be.

  4. Celsius and Kelvin are the same thing. If they were talking in percentages, let's say. In any case, it's not clear how you got from 0.95, which is almost a whole degree (and much more extreme) to 0.01?
    Creative accounting may be good for tycoons who want to avoid taxes, not for scientists.

  5. learned gentlemen,
    The average temperature of the entire earth during an entire year does not prove anything, and the use of this value is not scientific and is not a reliable measure!
    In official scientific forums and conferences, scientists always refer only to "extreme weather" - both breaking heat records and breaking cold records. Everyone agrees that the average of the temperatures around the world during an entire year has no meaning.
    By the way, it is always important to use the correct units of measurement; Temperature measurements in degrees Celsius or degrees Fahrenheit are simply not correct, since only degrees Kelvin should be used (these are the "natural" temperature degrees, so they should only be used!) - meaning the percentage increase in temperatures is significantly lower than the reported value. Equally funny is the use of the accuracy of the measurements: an error value of plus-minus 0.95 degrees Celsius (as stated in this publication) is simply funny and really unscientific: after all, the final values ​​of the accuracy of all temperature measurements - at any point in the world - in addition to the errors of the variance calculations, etc. ' - cannot be of such a high degree of accuracy: an order of magnitude for an accuracy of 0.01 degrees Celsius is a real joke!!!

  6. I actually had a very pleasant time compared to previous years. August is also very kind. Another fake news propaganda.

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